Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The Bull run

Now with the world economy steadying a little, its time for small investors to again look at the sensex with lust. Yes it had last to last year been an object of desire as it went on a roller coaster ride which had started by breaking the 15000 mark and then it never looked back and cruised to about 22000 in no time. The bulls were thrown out of Dalal Street by welcoming the statue of the Bull in front of the NSE building Wall Street style.

But sadly the joy ride did not last much longer and the stocks fell like the Great Indian batting line-up, in procession one after the other. This was largely due to the SLR crisis that had been waiting to burst. Now after around two years we again flirting with the 15000 mark and again hopes have been raised of small time investors to wet their hands in the moving water (It’s a phrase ). Again people with Obama at the helm are hoping for change in the market economy and rubbing their hands for what could be another joy ride in the coming. You could sense the optimism with the current Adani Power IPO which was actually to be launched a year ago but was withheld due to lack of interest in the market. However this time around it has been different with the scrip already being overpriced around 4.5 times people are expecting a boom this time around. Its price band is around 90 to 100 and is expected to launch right from the opening bell.

But what would be fresh from memory is the last time such kind of hoopla had been created and the Reliance Power scrip started losing from the very first few minutes of its birth. Considering this around the case would be different as last time the Reliance Power had indicated an end to the boom time and a start of the bloodshed. Similarly we are expecting that Adani Power would indicate the end of the slump and the start of the boom. But that depends how does the market react to the Adani Power share.

Again considering that the FIIs might have turned their heads back to India as their favorite destination this could be quite a good time for the Sensex.. However investment experts have advised people to not throw caution to wind and invest wisely a thing that we hardly consider when we ride into the boom time. Overall it could be predicted that by mid next year India would be chugging back into its growth path. For that to happen we must look into our manufacturing sector much more closely otherwise we would miss this opportunity to China which by then would be recording double digit growth rate.

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